🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Made $Nearly Half a Million from Wagers on the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A bettor made nearly half a million dollars on the ouster of Nicolás Maduro just before it was publicly declared, sparking debate about potential gains made from confidential information of the US operation. Market Movement in Forecasts Predictions made on the forecasting site, a crypto-powered platform, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the end of January increased in the hours before President Donald Trump stated on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been apprehended. A single trader, which became a member in December and took four positions, all on Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a starting bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The user had only a cryptographic address for identification. Market Signals Before News Break Market statistics shows that users put the odds of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of Friday, January 2nd. But the market's assessment had increased to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in positions right before the official statement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on inside information," stated an industry expert. A handful of other platform users also earned significant sums from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Grows Politicians are beginning to pay attention. A bill presented on recently aims to prohibit government employees from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to bet on everything from elections to politics. Prediction markets faced scrutiny under the Biden administration. Yet it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Insider trading is against the law in the traditional financial markets, but there are fewer regulations in the event betting space. A spokesperson for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."